Number 23 - Can we predict what technology will do?

Predictions, predictions vol 2

Last time we discussed about the theory of determinism in the sense of believing that our universe is strictly governed by cause and effect and thus our future is pre-decided. In this post, I'd like to explore a more mundane and earthly application of determinism. An application that has to do with modern engineering and how we design systems that are safe and more importantly understandable to human users.

Determinism as a property of a system can be thought of as reliability or predictability. A working concept of this type of determinism is the black box approach. The black box approach essentially implies that it is not necessary to know how a system (let's say, a website) operates: the only requirement to the system is that given the same input (press the same button on the keyboard) one always gets the same output (my post gets published in my blog). The black box approach is thus very helpful; it lets salespeople sell clear features and users to interact with technology with clear expectations. Everybody likes the black box!

Expect when they don't like the black box... What happens when we have a rare deviation? Is the website still deterministic if I click the button once and the post doesn't get published? How often should this be accepted to happen? If we rely on the system working properly, should we perhaps know a bit more of how the system actually works?

An example where the black box approach to determinism doesn't work is Artificial Intelligence applications and especially those built on neural networks. Neural networks are by nature probabilistic: they are trained to associate specific inputs to specific outputs, always with certain probability. It is thus very hard to argue that your self-driving car will always stop at a red light! Consequently, to prove that a self-driving car is safe we have to resort to extensive testing, with hours and hours of real life driving tests.

Alternatively, we could instead consider a different conception of determinism - one borrowed from the complex world of computer science and logic. Determinism is when the current state of the system and the input is known, then there is only one state that the system can move to. Suddenly, our self-driving system is simultaneously deterministic and non-deterministic depending on the agreed definitions. Definitely a confusing world - no wonder self-driving cars are still not a commercial reality!

Comments

Easter feast and task pipelines (48)

A Greek Easter feast As this post goes live, your host and author is most likely indulging in the joys of Easter Sunday. In Greece, where I come from, Easter is the biggest holiday of the year. And, as you might expect from a culture famous for its love of food, the Sunday feast is a central part of the celebration. The meal varies by region and family tradition, but one thing remains constant: roasted lamb. It symbolizes the sacrifice of Jesus, and it's always the star of the table. If you're reading this on Easter Sunday, there’s a good chance I’m savoring some leftover lamb while you scroll through these lines. Now, let me tell you—preparing this feast is no small feat. Roasting the lamb and getting the rest of the meal ready is a coordinated effort, usually involving many helping hands. To make sure everything is done in time for the classic Greek lunch hour (around 14:00), the tasks must be broken down and distributed efficiently. This is where the real planning begins....

I think, therefore I am (35)

I think, therefore I am Consciousness—or self-awareness—feels like one of the most distinctly human traits. Sure, some animals are clever, but only a handful, like certain primates, seem to pass the “mirror test” and recognize themselves in their reflection. So, what exactly is consciousness? The truth is, it’s hard to pin down. Interestingly, an accessible definition of consciousness doesn’t come from philosophy or biology, but from medicine—specifically anesthesiology. In this field, consciousness is defined as the awareness of pain and our surroundings during surgery. It's a practical, measurable approach: you’re either aware or you’re not. This definition not only makes consciousness easier to grasp but also highlights its connection to our sensory perception. This view brings us to the classic "dual theory" of consciousness. In this framework, the body and mind are seen as separate entities, with the brain acting as the “control room.” The mind issues commands, the b...

A chess game played at a two hundred kilometers per hour (66)

A chess game played at a two hundred kilometers per hour That is how the sport of modern fencing is often portrayed by its practitioners, or, frankly, anyone with an inclination to dramatize. Often, in student fencing circles this phrase is used ironically to juxtapose how simple, pragmatic and brutal this sport can sometimes be. However, I am inclined to approach this phrase by visualizing its contents; fencing is indeed an ancient game, requiring wit and is supplemented with technology unimagined by previous generations. It really is a marriage cold calculation and passion. A passion which is shared by the previous blog exploring modern fencing technology, and which drives one to explore developments of fencing technology even deeper. How Horses Became Formula 1 A common passerby would not think of modern slender, antenna-like blades as swords. And they would be completely right, none of the three fencing weapons (saber, foil and epee) are swords. Assuming the sole purpose of a sword...

New Phaistos

Search This Blog