Number 22 - Can we predict what will happen in the future?

Predictions, predictions

One of the most classic applications of science is to be able to tell the future. Tribe elders and wise men of the past were often faced with prediction tasks. The pressing questions of the day were about the year's farming season (when to reap, how bountiful the harvest will be and so on) and what star should one follow to find their way. After some mix of superstitions and observations we naturally evolved actual experiment backed science.

This type of science kick-started the whole modern era. Soon the 4 forces of physics (weak and strong nuclear, gravity and electromagnetism) were laid bare to us. For most of daily's life problems now science had an answer: assuming one knew the underlying rules and initial conditions it is possible not only to calculate the evolution of a system but also its past! And of course, most of the times the rules themselves were way too complicated to calculate, but with some simplifications one could get a good approximation.

Wait a second here - that means that anything in theory *is* predictable! Maybe not by mankind, or at least not today's mankind, but still due to pure connection of cause and effect everything in our world in theory has already happened. The stock market, global pandemics and daily events are all a per-determined sequence. This theory of pre-determined events is called determinism.

Determinism, for all its weight, has mostly fallen out of fashion today. Many modern findings, most of all quantum physics seem to elude predictable phenomena. Furthermore, there is the belief that determinism cannot be true. Some consider its implications counter to the notion of free-will and thus reject it axiomatically. I personally believe that this approach is mistaken as human free-will is rather experienced and not an objective trait. For the moment, let's leave determinism lie and let's discuss next time how deterministic concepts are used this day to make systems predictable.

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